CCC Progress Report 2023

The true test of leadership is delivery, says the outgoing Chair of the Climate Change Committee (CCC) Lord Deben in his Foreword to the 2023 Progress in Reducing Emissions report to Parliament. The UK government is currently failing to deliver.

Since last year, the CCC’s confidence in the achievement of the UK’s 2030 targets and 5th and 6th carbon budgets is down.

‘I urge Government to find the courage to place climate change once again at the heart of its leadership. It would be a terrible error if we in Britain hesitate just as the rest of the world wakes up to the opportunity of Net Zero’.

lord deben in the foreword to the 2023 ccc progress report

Executive Summary

The Executive Summary says that the UK has lost its position as a global leader on climate change. This is because we are no longer COP President and we’ve left the EU.

Further, in response to the recent fossil fuel price crisis, the UK did not take rapid steps to reduce energy demand nor to grow renewable generation.

‘We have backtracked on fossil fuel commitments, with the consenting of a new coal mine and support for new UK oil and gas production – despite the strong wording of the Glasgow Climate Pact.’

executive summary of the 2023 ccc progress report

The UK Government has been forced by the courts to provide new detail on Net Zero plans, in the shape of the Carbon Budget Delivery Plan (CBDP).

This represents increased transparency, but not delivery at the pace that is needed to meet the UK’s commitments on climate – including a 2030 target to reduce emissions by 68% relative to 1990.

The government’s approach is unrealistic technological solutions, because it does not have the courage to take measures that will result in a reduction in high-carbon activities.

The key messages in the report are:

• the lack of urgency shown by the government must change, with sustained high-intensity action needed
• the government must stay firm on its existing commitments, such as installing 600,000 heat pumps a year, and move to delivery
• the UK should retake an international leadership role, in part by delivering its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for 2030
• immediate priority action is needed in areas including decarbonising steel production, tree planting and peatland restoration, and deploying electric heating
• instead of relying on unproven technological solutions, the government should change behaviours and enable low-carbon choices – including reducing air and car travel
• a coherent public engagement strategy on climate change is long overdue
• the planning system should be given an overarching requirement that all decisions should be taken giving full regard to the imperative of Net Zero
• expansion of fossil fuel production is not in line with Net Zero
• no airport expansions should proceed until a UK-wide capacity management framework is in place to assess and control greenhouse gas emissions from the sector

Progress in Reducing Emissions

The UK’s GHG emissions in 2022 were 46% below 1990 levels, and

• 9% below pre-pandemic levels but
• 0.8% above 2021 levels

Surface transport emissions increased by 3% but were 8% below pre-pandemic levels. There is some evidence that car-kilometres have reached a reduced steady state.

The pace of emissions reduction is slow in all sectors except electricity supply. To achieve the 2030 target, the rate of emissions reductions outside electricity supply must quadruple, from 1.2% a year to 4.7% a year.

Indicators of Progress

The CCC tracks indicators of progress in each sector.

On transport, this includes sales of electric vehicles (where electric car sales are growing but electric van sales lag) and car-kilometres.

Policy Risks and Gaps

The CBDP highlighted some areas where commitment is lacking, notably the decision not to quantify potential emissions savings from a reduction in car-kilometres.

Confidence in meeting the 4th Carbon Budget (2023-2027) is up slightly, due to a 5% decrease in car-kilometres caused by the pandemic.

Confidence in the UK meeting its 2030 NDC and 6th Carbon Budget (2033-2027) is down, due to government delay.

Demand-side policies – i.e. changing behaviour – should be implemented now as a core part of the decarbonisation strategy. This includes reducing car travel.

The Urgent Need for Action and Strategy

Policies with immediate delivery are needed, in parallel with new strategic visions.

Progress Against Last Year’s Recommendations

Progress against last year’s recommendations has been too slow.

Priority Recommendations 2023

There are 27 priority recommendations in this year’s report.

They include no airport expansion, and making the National Planning Policy Framework consistent with Net Zero.

State of the Climate

The key messages here are that:

• 2022 was one of the six hottest years on record, and 2023 is likely to be warmer still
• extreme weather events such as heatwaves and droughts pose a threat to all countries, and are escalating as heating increases
• in 2022 emissions increased slightly, and there is no sign yet of decreasing emissions

Surface Transport

The CCC report contains chapters on each sector, but here I’m interested in surface transport.

It is the highest emitting sector, contributing 23% of the total. Emissions have rebounded following the pandemic.

The CBDP reduced the level of ambition on transport because:

• it has been discovered that plug-in hybrids don’t reduce emissions by anywhere near the amount previously assumed and
• policies aimed at modal shift away from cars have been removed from the quantified pathway. This signals a lack of commitment from government to modal shift

This results in a shortfall in abatement of emissions that needs to be made up. The DfT has a range of options, including demand reduction and modal shift. It needs to develop and implement these.

The CCC’s key messages on surface transport include:

• key decisions have been delayed over the past year. The government must now urgently get back on track
• the share of electric cars has increased ahead of the CCC’s balanced pathway
• the government has made no progress on limiting traffic growth

On the subject of limiting traffic growth:

‘The government has made no progress on our recommendations on clarifying the role for car demand reductions and ensuring that key enablers (road-building decisions and taxation) are aligned to delivering this.

While there have been some positive signs through the distribution of capability funding by Active Travel England, the introduction of the temporary £2 bus fare cap and the implementation of low-traffic neighbourhoods and low-emission zones by local authorities, these have been balanced by negative developments including delays to local transport guidance and cuts to the active travel budget.’

ccc comments on limiting traffic growth

Electric Vehicles

The CCC says that SUV sales continue to grow, making up 44% of all new EVs in 2022. ‘This trend towards larger, heavier vehicles needs to be halted to lower the embedded emissions in vehicle production and reduce the demands on the electricity grid. Prioritising smaller vehicles would also benefit consumers by increasing the availability of cheaper EVs.’

Modal Shift

‘Switching to lower-carbon modes of travel, including active travel, public transport and shared mobility, is one important means of reducing car demand. There has been little progress on this to date…’

Policy Assessment

The CCC notes that there are credible policies in place for only 38% of the emissions reductions required by the 6th Carbon Budget.

The CBDP represents a decrease in ambition. The main thing it lacks is measures to reduce car demand.

The CCC praises local schemes such as 15-minute neighbourhoods and LTNs. It says that in London, LTNs have contributed to large reductions in traffic, and this does not appear to have been displaced onto boundary roads.

Areas to be addressed on reducing car travel include:

• measures leading to demand reduction, modal shift or shared mobility
• LTP guidance, promised in the Transport Decarbonisation Plan but still not published
• review whether road-building projects are consistent with environmental goals
• look at road pricing
• stop the freeze on fuel duty
• restore active travel funding

This table shows changes in car-kilometres under various scenarios – from the CCC 6th Carbon Budget and the DfT’s National Road Traffic Projections.