Quantified Carbon Reductions
The DfT is due to produce guidance for councils’ new Local Transport Plans (LTPs). It will include detailed information about how local authorities should deliver Quantified Carbon Reductions (QCRs) from their transport networks.
The LTP guidance is long-delayed.
My impression is that conscientious civil servants have been preparing the guidance. I speculate that irresponsible ministers – including Prime Minister Sunak – have been looking for a way out.
The laws of physics trump the laws of politics here. We can’t keep heating the planet, and we will have to make changes to our transport systems.
Consultants WSP produced a QCR study for Cambridge & Peterborough Combined Authority (CPCA). It gives a good insight into how QCRs will work.
Four-Step Process
The QCR study goes through a four-step process:
- look at carbon budgets and pathways
- identify the implementation gap – what further reductions are needed after electric vehicle take-up
- identify transport outcomes – avoid, shift, improve, and the scale of car use reduction that’s needed
- review the impact of different interventions
Carbon Budgets and Pathways
Looking at the various carbon budgets and pathways produced by different organisations, and comparing them against Business as Usual (BaU), it’s clear that interventions are needed.
Without action, CPCA would exceed its emissions quota for each Carbon Budget (CB) as defined by the Climate Change Committee (CCC) – CB4 (2023-7), CB5 (2028-32) and CB6 (2033-37).
Implementation Gap
Accelerated take-up of EVs would have an impact, and reduce CPACA’s transport emissions from 28.19 MtCO2e to 24.25 MtCO2e in the period 2023-37.
This still isn’t enough, and leaves an ‘implementation gap’.
Identify Transport Outcomes
The QCR study identifies a ‘framework of outcomes’ that will decarbonise transport. The report says:
‘Transport interventions that don’t Avoid, Shift or Improve are unlikely to support decarbonisation at the pace required’.
p10 of the QCR study
It adds that the scale of the emissions gap demands a ‘do-everything’ approach.
Net Zero and carbon budgets cannot be met without reductions in car use.
The DfT’s National Road Traffic Projections assume an increase in traffic, but everyone else – including the Climate Change Committe, Transport for the North, the Scottish government and Transport for Wales – acknowledges that traffic must be reduced.
CPCA has settled on a 15% reduction in vehicle km from 2019 to 2030.
Up to 2028, this is ambitious enough to align with the CCC pathway. Beyond 2030, reduction in vehicle use must be accelerated to achieve statutory carbon budgets.
Impact of Interventions
LTCP Schemes
The consultants looked at 62 schemes in CPCA’s LTP. 43 were sustainable transport schemes, and 19 (55% by value) were highways schemes.
The sustainable transport schemes analysed would equate to a 0.8% reduction in CPCA’s cumulative emissions 2022-2050 – quite a small reduction.
The report quotes the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions:
‘Important to note that there are no future scenarios in which the UK can meet its carbon reduction milestones over the next two decades whilst car traffic is allowed to grow, even if EV uptake accelerates significantly’
centre for research into energy demand solutions
Interventions
Interventions are split into Avoid (such as planning 20-minute neighbourhoods), Shift (to active travel and public transport) and Improve (including EVs and online working).
Modal shift could be worth about 6%, but there’s still a 20% emissions gap to Net Zero in 2030. This means that reduction in vehicle km is essential.
The most effective interventions, without which Net Zero cannot be achieved, are:
- online services to replace travel to locations
- area wide road user charging
- cordon-based road user charging
- demand management (access and capacity constraints)
Demand management includes modal filters, speed restrictions and road space reallocation – all of which are good for cycling. Other elements are road user charging, low emission zones, parking charges, and workplace parking levies.
Road user charging is expected to have the greatest influence on travel behaviour and therefore carbon emissions.
The government has acknowledged the need to limit traffic growth, but has not set a specific ambition or target.
The Importance of Sustainable Transport Options
Active travel schemes only return modest carbon savings in themselves, but they are very important (p41 of the study).
Without these attractive sustainable transport choices, the disincentives to vehicle use cannot be delivered, or will have negative socio-economic impacts.