World Heading for Climate Catastrophe
The world is heading for climate catastrophe, says the UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres. He was speaking in advance of the COP27 climate conference in Egypt.
He told the BBC that climate change is the defining issue of our time, and impacts in some countries are already devastating. It would be ‘stupid’ to invest more money in fossil fuels now, according to Guterres.
Greenhouse Gases at Record Levels – WMO
Meanwhile the World Meteorological Organisation says that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are at record levels.
2020 and 2021 saw the biggest ever increases in methane concentrations. It may be that warmer global temperatures encourage microbial methane production. Methane in the atmosphere is 1908 parts per billion, but it only lasts for about 10 years.
CO2 is a bigger concern since it persists and affects the climate for decades or longer. CO2 has reached 417 parts per million and nitrous oxide 334.5 ppb.
State of Climate Action 2022
State of Climate Action 2022, an assessment of the gap in climate action, has been published by the World Resources Institute.
It notes that since the Paris agreement 7 years ago, greenhouse gas emissions have continued to rise. It’s not just that the atmospheric concentrations are higher, we’re adding more of the gases than ever before.
To keep the Paris target of 1.5C in reach, an enormous transformation of all systems is needed this decade.
The report measures 40 indicators, and none of them are on track to achieve 1.5C. Some headlines include:
- phasing out electricity generation from coal needs to happen 6x faster than at present
- reducing deforestation must happen 2.5x faster
- reducing meat consumption must happen 5x faster. People in Europe, America and Australia should not eat more than two burgers a week
- climate finance should grow 10x faster
Of the 40 indicators:
- 6 are heading in the right direction but at insufficient speed
- 21 are well below the required pace
- 5 are heading in the wrong direction
- 8 have insufficient data to evaluate
The Executive Summary notes recent climate extremes and events, including Antarctica reaching 39C above normal temperature, the collapse of the first East Antarctic ice shelf, a two-decade megadrought in the south western US, and a deadly heatwave in India and Pakistan.
Current 2030 climate pledges leave us on track for 2.4-2.8C of heating by the end of the century.
‘This future represents an unrecognizable world of hardship in which some regions are no longer habitable, agricultural fields either dry up or are inundated with floodwaters, greater swaths of forests burn for longer, and increasing number of species face extinction, and rising seas swallow coastlines.’
executive summary of state of climate action 2022
Car Use
One of the indicators heading in the wrong direction is car use. The percentage of km travelled by car should be reduced by 4 to 14% below business as usual by 2030, but it is increasing.
Another indicator is the number of km of high-quality bike lanes being built. It is way off target.
‘First…cities are slowly building out more rapid transit and high-quality bike lanes to make low-carbon modes of travel more accessible. Second, private car use must decline. Yet the share of kilometres travelled by passenger cars increased from 39% in 2015 to 44% in 2020.’
executive summary of the state of climate action 2022 report, transport
The COP27 Climate Change Conference runs from 6th to 18th November 2022 in Sharm el-Sheikh.