Mind the Carbon Gap
Current government transport decarbonisation policy is not enough to achieve the UK’s climate goals. There is a carbon gap between our present policies and the reductions we need to make.
That’s according to a new report called Bridging the Gap. The authors of the report are Greg Marsden, Keith Mitchell and Monika Buscher.
It is the result of a collaboration among several organisations – Stantec, DecarboN8, Transport for the North, Transport for Greater Manchester, Bury Council, and Leeds, Newcastle and Lancaster Universities.
The study began in 2021, with the aim of understanding the gap between current government transport decarbonisation policy and the attainment of net zero mobility targets.
The issues have been examined through a case study of a proposed development at Elton Reservoir, in Bury.
‘The sobering conclusion of this work is that a reduction in travel by car of at least 20% is required by 2030 to meet surface transport net zero, assuming the most favourable outcomes from current policies’.
executive summary of bridging the gap
The report says that relying on a switch to electric vehicles alone is not enough to meet transport decarbonisation targets. People and places need to play a much bigger role.
The Executive Summary explains that government policy ‘…relies mainly on the transition to electric vehicles and renewable energy to drive carbon reduction in this sector’. The government:
‘…has avoided the more complex, controversial, but necessary transport related issues of demand management and behaviour change.
Critically, it has resulted in there being few incentives to change the way land use and transport projects are delivered, with new development and infrastructure continuing to reinforce high carbon behaviour and outcomes.
This is a major challenge that will need to be grasped if net zero mobility is to be delivered’.
executive summary of bridging the gap
Public transport and active travel-friendly environments are the most likely pathways to reach net zero in transport.
Professor Greg Marsden says there is so much to be done to change the practice of transport planning and keep global heating to 1.5C, but he worries that it is drifting out of reach.
‘1.5C seems increasingly difficult to achieve in the face of populist culture wars and a wavering commitment to the tough decisions that the Climate Change Committee state will define our progress’.
prof greg marsden
According to Professor Marsden, there is a crisis of inaction.
Bridging the Gap deals with reducing car use, planning for public transport and active travel, and adapting to societal needs.
Reducing Car Use
Car use needs to be reduced by at least 20% by 2030.
‘Climate Change is an existential threat to humanity. Even knowing this, the UK is not doing enough to meet net zero in the surface transport sector. Current plans are focussed on delivering a transition of existing travel to alternative fuels. This is still important, but if we are to meet the UK’s net zero mobility goals, we need to reduce car use by at least 20% (or equivalent) by 2030 and retain these levels thereafter’.
bridging the gap at a glance
We need to create places where there is less need to travel, and the alternative modes of transport are more attractive than the car. We have to stop investing in ever greater capacity for car use.
Not only will this enable us to meet net zero mobility targets, it will also create healthier places to live.
The key trips are those of intermediate distances, 5-30km, since they represent 60% of travel distance related to a development site.
The report is clear that doing nothing about cars is not an option.
‘In all scenarios, car restraint policies would need to form part of a solution alongside the provision of convenient alternatives to the car’.
executive summary of bridging the gap
Planning for Public Transport and Active Travel
The study:
‘…recognises that continued use of predict and provide assessment in planning will result in continued car dependent, high carbon travel outcomes, and that a move towards vision-led planning and design is needed’.
executive summary of bridging the gap
High-density mixed use development (15 minute neighbourhoods) focused on public transport and active travel-friendly environments provide the most likely pathway to net zero transport. This is TfN’s Urban Zero Carbon scenario.
Alternatively, a technology- and mobility services-led future (TfN’s Digitally Distributed scenario) has potential, but would require even more ambitious reductions in car use – 30% by 2030.
Adapting to Societal Needs
It is often assumed that society is not ready for change, but Bridging the Gap takes the opposite view – that the changes are not ready for society. Both the Urban Zero Carbon scenario and the Digitally Distributed scenario would leave society ‘anxious about its ability to thrive’.
Instead of simply trying to persuade people of the merits of a project as designed, the vision behind the project might need to be changed to better meet societal needs.
The team looked at how net zero transport solutions might need to adapt to align with societal needs.
This includes a vision-led planning approach, and techniques for using dissent constructively in order to bring the public along on the journey to net zero.
Professor Monika Buscher explains these ideas further.
‘People just seem unable to grasp the scale and urgency of the problem, many need concrete individual comfort more than abstract life-chances of future generations, they can tolerate the cognitive dissonance between their values and inaction.
While experts call for better communication and education, a vocal minority actively exploit these problems to turn climate change into a culture war issue and delay action.
But this public deficit approach to societal readiness is destructive. It diverts attention from vital questions about the solutions themselves: How ready are they for people to adopt into their everyday lives? How easy are they for businesses and developers to sell? How can politicians promote them and still be elected? How good are they for society in the long-term?
Changing mobilities is risky for politicians, service providers, planners, housing and infrastructure developers, individuals and society as a whole, because existential human values of freedom, social connection, and opportunity have become utterly entangled with dysfunctional energy and mobility systems.
Car dependence is not a choice, it is structural. Advertising, predict and provide-led planning, and land use decisions actively make the car a necessity. Individuals, families, communities struggle to make green transport choices, because employment, education, healthcare, shopping, culture and leisure opportunities are only available a long way from home or perceived to be better there.
There are vast inequalities, with affluent commuters’ lifestyles and sense of identity car-dependent in ways that are very different from how less privileged neighbours depend on their cars to make ends meet.
Courageous creativity, careful analysis and innovation are needed to break these dynamics’.
professor monika Buscher
Part of the solution to this is to assess visions and solutions using Societal Readiness Assessment tools and methods.
The most practical future scenario is likely to be a hybrid of Urban Zero Carbon and Digitally Distributed, focusing on the quickest wins that have the most impact on intermediate trips.
This will require a coordinated approach to planning and development, focusing on net zero mobility priorities, and avoiding counter-productive investment in providing greater capacity for car movement.
‘There is much to do to move away from car dependent models of land use and transport. Continuing to invest in additional highway capacity creates additional capacity for car use and congestion. Change will only come with a co-ordinated move away from highway capacity towards the funding of mobility services and reallocation of road space towards other modes’.
executive summary of bridging the gap
Read the full Bridging the Gap report.