Focus on Stage 4 Tour de France 2024
Stage 4 of the Tour de France 2024 is an oddity, in that it’s an isolated day in the Alps. Its function is to bring the race back from the Grand Départ in Italy.
The 2024 Tour doesn’t return to the Alps until the end of the race (from Stage 17 onwards).
The Profile of Stage 4 Tour de France 2024
The profile of Stage shows that there are three categorised climbs.
The first one to Sestriere is very long but not steep (40km at 3.7%). A breakaway may go here, but it’s unlikely that any gaps will develop among the GC riders. It will just be part of the wearing-down process.
The second climb, to the Col de Montgenevre, is shorter and steeper (8km at 6%). It’s probably too far from the finish for a GC rider to risk an attack.
It’s on the final climb of the Col du Galibier that any GC action will happen.
The Galibier is 23km at 5%. Altitude comes into play as well, with the summit at 2,642m.
Will gaps open up on GC on Stage 4, and who will the winners and losers be?
These are the main GC contenders.
Tadej Pogacar
Pogacar was in very good form in May when winning the Giro d’Italia. He is likely to carry that form into the early stages of the Tour de France.
Of the main GC contenders, Pogacar is perhaps the most likely to launch a scintillating attack on the Galibier and to win in Valloire.
If there is a worry for the Slovenian, it’s whether he can hold onto his top condition throughout the 3 weeks of the Tour.
Jonas Vingegaard
We don’t even know whether Vingegaard will be racing the Tour. The Dane is on the road to recovery after his crash in April.
The latest comments from his coach Tim Heekskerk are that he has a 50-50 chance. Having said that, it seems that the Visma-Lease-a-Bike star is following a programme and on track.
While the team does not want to put him under unnecessary pressure by saying he will be ready, it would be a major surprise if he were not named in the Tour team.
Vingegaard is likely to be under-cooked at the start of the race.
The Tour starts with, in effect, three one-day classics in Italy, then this fourth stage in the mountains. I guess that Vingegaard’s objective will be not to lose any time on his rivals, rather than gaining time.
Jonas Vingegaard should be targeting the later part of the race, in the Pyrenees and the Alps, in pursuit of a third consecutive yellow jersey.
The battle between Vingegaard and Pogacar might resemble the race between the tortoise and the hare. Pogacar (the hare) could streak ahead early on, only for Vingegaard (the tortoise) to steadily reel him in.
Primoz Roglic
Primoz Roglic is another contender to win Stage 4, and for the overall Tour de France title.
He has won the Vuelta three times, and the Giro once – last year. He is keen to add the Tour de France to his palmares.
On the other hand he is now 34 years old, and there is a suspicion that his best years might be behind him. He may not be quite at the level of Pogacar and Vingegaard.
Roglic won the Dauphiné this month despite a wobble on the final stage.
Remco Evenepoel
Like Vingegaard, Remco Evenepoel is on the comeback trail after a crash in April.
The Belgian wasn’t as badly injured as the Dane, and was fit enough to ride the Dauphiné. That race saw him win the individual time trail, but lose time in the mountains.
Remco’s objective in the Tour de France may be to stick with the best riders on the climbs, rather than seeking to gain time, and to win the ITTs.
Favourite for Stage 4 Tour de France 2024
Given these factors, Pogacar looks the most likely of the GC favourites to win Stage 4.